To be fair, if you think the summer of 2022 was a hot season, you’re right. In fact, the entire year has been warm.
NASA’s dataset shows 2022 is the fifth warmest year on record so far. The hottest years have all occurred since 2010.
As for July, the land and ocean-surface temperature for the globe was 1.57 degrees Fahrenheit (0.87 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average of 60.4 degrees Fahrenheit (15.8 degrees Celsius). That doesn’t seem like much, but it makes it the sixth-hottest July in the 143-year climate record.
But all that pales compared to the "extreme heat belt" that is coming. That’s the description of an area of intense heat that is forecasted in a report by First Street Foundation, a nonprofit that studies climate risk.
By the summer of 2053, much of North Carolina is predicted to join about 100 million Americans in what is being called an “extreme heat belt.” That’s where at least one day per year, the heat index temperature is predicted to exceed 125 degrees Fahrenheit (52 degrees Celsius).
The heat index combines temperature and humidity to describe how it feels when you go outside. That number is the top level of the National Weather Service’s heat index, or the extreme danger level.
The report also says, on average, peak temperatures now on the seven hottest days will increase to 18 days by 2053.
The future heat belt includes the Southeast and the area just west of the Appalachian Mountains. Stretching from Texas and Louisiana all the way up through Missouri and Iowa to the Wisconsin border.
“Increasing temperatures are usually discussed in year averages, but we wanted to focus on the extension of extreme tail events in a given year, how the heat keeps building up,” said Matthew Eby, founder and chief executive of First Street.
Eby adds that while temperatures are difficult to predict, there’s a difference between climatology and meteorology. First Street Foundation researchers use climatology modeling that shows rising global temperatures based on the current level of greenhouse gas emissions to predict warming trends.
On top of that, the report uses local, address-specific information, such as tree cover and the amount of impervious surfaces, like parking lots and roadways, which absorb and retain heat. Proximity to water and elevation, which all tend to lower temperatures, are also considered.
In the end, we may look back on the summer of 2022 and reflect on how comfortable it seemed.
